Why openings slip, and the two decisions that decide it

An opening that slips does not slip at the end. By the last month everyone can see the problem and everyone is working eighteen-hour days trying to close it. The decision that caused it was made — or more precisely, not made — around month two.

Decision one: freezing the kitchen drawings

There is a moment when the kitchen design has to be frozen, and it always arrives before the concept feels finished. Owners resist, because freezing feels like giving up optionality. But the equipment lead times are what they are: a combi oven ordered eleven weeks late does not arrive eleven weeks late, it arrives after the opening.

• Freeze the design at month two, not month four
• Order long-lead equipment before the menu is final
• Design for the covers in the business plan, not the covers in the brochure
• Have a chef in the room before the drawings are signed

Decision two: starting recruitment before it feels necessary

The second deferral is recruitment. It feels premature to hire a brigade for a building that is still a shell, and the payroll starts running months before revenue does. So it waits — and in a thin labour market, a brigade of ninety takes thirteen weeks to assemble, not five.

“An opening date is not a target. Everything else on the plan is negotiable; that is not.”

Both decisions cost money early to save far more later. Both are easy to defer, because deferring them has no visible consequence for about ninety days. That is the whole trap.